Economic Indicators
US & global: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
Germany: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/ifoHome/a-winfo/d1index
What is it: Shows business confidence and whether economy is growing or not. Usually lags stock market by 1 month. Use this as confirmation of up or down trend.
How to use: If indicators improve or turn positive when share indices have been up for a few weeks, then good chance economy has turned better and share prices will continue to go up
National Debt, Budget Deficit http://ca.gdc.economist.com.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html
What is it: How much debt a country has and can they service the debt. Excessively high debts (above 100% GDP) and budget deficit (> 5%) indicate potential financing problem for country.
Notes:
- includes sovereign debts (national, regional/state and city governments), private debts and unfunded future commitments (for retirement benefits like social security, medicare etc).
- problem greater if significant portion of debt is denominated in foreign currency that country cannot 'print' to devalue their debt and ease repayment cost.
How to use: see above
| Bud Def | GDP | Tot Debt | Gov | Private | |
| US | 14.5T | 380% | 105% | 280% | |
| UK | 2.3T | 475% | 85% | 290% | |
Eurozone Germany | 3.3T | 450%? 280% | 80% | ||
| France | 2.7T | 340% | 90% | ||
| Italy | 2.0T | 310% | 120% | ||
| Spain | 1.4T | 370% | 85% | 220% | |
| Portugal | 0.2T | 95% | |||
Japan | 5.2T | 500% | 200% | 300% | |
| China | 5.9T | 20% | |||
| India | 1.6T | 55% | |||
| Brazil | 2.0T | 55% | |||
| Russia | |||||
Money Base
US: http://ycharts.com/indicators/monetary_base
What is it: Total money 'issued' by central bank = paper currency in circulation plus bank deposits with central bank. Bank deposits at central bank (if not reduced) is money potentially available for lending out to the market thereby increasing total money supply significantly (due to multiplier effect).
Note: Other countries may not use the term 'money base' but otehr terms like M0 (e.g. UK). Therefore, M0, M1, M2 etc have different definition for different countries.
How to use: money base expansion indicates potential future money supply expansion. Use together with size of money supply.
US Fed B/S ECB B/S CHINA JAPAN
2012 2.9T 3.0T 115T
2008 0.9T 1.3T
Notes.
- 2008 US domestic money base is smaller by about $580B because 70% of currency money ($580B of $850B) is outside US. Therefore, monetary expansion thru 2012 is 10 times (since domestic base was only $270B in 2008)
- gold in US b/s valued at $43/oz??
Money Supply
US http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply
What is it: How much money in circulation. The more money, the 'cheaper' it becomes (i.e. money is being debased) and the higher prices of things and real stuffs will get (i.e. price inflation).
Governments use cheap money (expand money supply, lower interest rate, create inflation) to try to stimulate consumption and 'growth'. Since it also reduces the country's debt burden, inflation is the preferred option for all governments!
How to use: when money supply expand, everything will go up i.e. inflation!
Interest Rates
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^FVX
What is it: How expensive is it to borrow money. Alternate indicator of how much money is in circulation. The more money around, the 'cheaper' borrowing money becomes.
How to use: when rates are low, money is cheap to borrow and a lot of money is available. Everything will go up in money terms!
US Treasury Holdings 2009:
- US government retirement funds 3.3T
- European banks ? T
Inflation Rates
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
What is it: How quickly prices of goods are going up. Alternate indicator of how much money is in circulation. The more money around, the 'higher' inflation becomes. Prices of real stuffs like basic commodities, precious metals, land etc. will go up.
Notes:
- Governments tend to under report inflation to make things 'look good' and hide their money printing from people. E,g, 'official' US consumer price index (CPI) does not include food, energy and house prices (but rentals), and use 'cheaper product substitution' when calculating inflation rate
- High inflation lowers people's disposable income and lowers discretionary goods price due to lack of demand. Luxury and discretionary product/services businesses will be adversely affected. That is at least initially (1 or 2 years) but medium/long term they will also rise as money floods the market.
Beware: During financial crises (bursting of economic bubbles), deflation may happen because previous 'growth' was not real but driven by high supply of credit (money). In crises, those credit/money will be destroyed (lost) and people living off such credit lose wealth and forced to sell assets and cuts consumption resulting in lower prices.
How to use: when sudden deflation during financial crises, buy real assets or businesss owning real assets!
Share Prices
US: http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#symbol=^gspc
What is it: State of share markets indicate health of economy. US S&P is a good proxy of overall world share prices & economy
How to use:
Oil Price
Brent: http://www.oilnergy.com/1obrent.htm#since88
What is it: Price of Brent Crude indicates health of economy.
Notes:
- Brent crude price is a good proxy as 2/3 of all oil sales are based on it (but may be controlled by Brits). Gazprom gas prices are linked to Brent crude.
- Price always peak in May/June (25% higher than start of year) due to higher car consumption in 'summer holidays'.
How to use:
Gold/Silver Price
London: http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/history.html
What is it: Price of gold indicates level of monetary debasement by governments.
Notes:
- World gold production 2.3k tons/yr = 2% of total gold (165k tons)
- above link is to prices per London fixing controlled by Brits. Refer also to HK fixing prices
- gold/silver prices are manipulated by governments short-sell via JP Morgan, HSBC etc (if prices do not fall those banks are caught causing e.g. HSBC to cut businesses in 2012)
Government Gold Stock (tons) as of 2009:
- US 8,000 (but reportedly short 4,000 to support USD)
- EU 13,500
- East Europe 800
- IMF 3,200
- Latin Am 500? (Venezuela alone 300)
- Arabs 1,300
- Asia 3,500 (China 1,000; India 800; Japan 750; Taiwan 400)
Demographics
What is it: Distribution of population by age
- age 30-40 spending on home first
- age 40-45 spending peaks on kids schooling etc.
- age 46-50 spending drops drastically as kids graduate & leave home
How to use:
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